China Update:  the busy economic calendar this week offers a glimpse of the state of the Chinese economy China Update:  the busy economic calendar this week offers a glimpse of the state of the Chinese economy China Update:  the busy economic calendar this week offers a glimpse of the state of the Chinese economy

China Update: the busy economic calendar this week offers a glimpse of the state of the Chinese economy

Macro 阅读时间7分钟
Redmond Wong

中国区首席策略师

摘要:  The Caixin Services PMI showed that the service sector in China was deep in the contractionary zone in May. Investors will be monitoring closely the trade data, aggregate financing and loan data scheduled to release this week for assessment of the direction of the Chinese economy.


China’s May Caixin Services PMI came this morning at 41.4, much weaker than expectation (Bloomberg consensus 46.0; April 36.2) and staying deeply in the contractionary zone and being the second lowest since March 2020.  Service employment sub-index fell further to 48.5 (vs 49.3 in April), the fifth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level since March 2021. Companied surveyed cited pandemic control restrictions as an important factor for the weakness in activities. 

The improvement in May Caixin Services PMI number from April was notably weaker that what was suggested in the services sector sub-index of the official NBS non-manufacturing PMI that bounced to 47.1 in May from 40.0 in April.  In addition to the fact that the Caixin survey focusses on private enterprises, the differently might attribute to that difference in the timing of the survey.  The Caixin survey took place in mid-May when the COVID-related restrictions were more stringent than late May when the NBS survey was conducted. 

One bright spot in the Caixin Services PMI was the improvement in the output price sub-index which improved to 50.7, entering the expansionary zone, from 48.5 in April.  The input price sub-index decelerated slightly to 52.4 in May from 53.7 in April.  The improvement indicates some pricing power of business enterprises in the services sector to pass on cost increases to their customers. 

China has a busy economic calendar this week.  In addition to the Caixin services PMI mentioned above, the market will be focussing on the aggregate financing, loans and money supply figures that are expected to be released between June 9 and 15 (the exact date is not made known) and the trade data scheduled to release on Thursday June 9.

New aggregate financing is expected to rebound to RMB2 trillion in May (Bloomberg consensus) from RMB910bn in April, being help by an increase in government bond issuance and a rebound of new RMB loans to 1.2 trillion from last month’s 545 billion.  This implies the growth rate of outstanding aggregate financing remains subdue at 10.2% YoY, partly due to base effect.  May money supply is expected to grow 10% YoY (Bloomberg consensus) in May (vs 10.5% in April). 

May trade data is scheduled to release on Thursday June 9.  Container throughput data in the first 20 days of May suggests recovery in trade growth from the previous month as disruption to logistics and production eased.  Bloomberg consensus is calling for exports and imports to rise 8% YoY and 2.5% YoY respectively.

We will also have the inflation data scheduled to release on Friday June 10. Inflation is less a concern for policy makers or the focus of the market for the time being in China.  May PPI is expected to fall 6.5% YoY (Bloomberg consensus) from April’s 8.0% as energy and raw materials prices having plateaued and due to base effect.  May CPI is expected to inch higher to 2.2% (Bloomberg consensus) from April’s 2.1%.  During the month, China added to its state reserves of pork to stabilize and reverse the decline in pork price.  Pork has a weight of approximately 4.8% in China’s CPI. 

Caixin China Services PMI Business Activity Index; Sources: Bloomberg LP; Saxo

免责声明

盛宝银行集团下每个成员个体均提供纯粹的交易服务和分析,让投资者查看和/或使用网站上的内容。此内容并非为了改变或扩展纯粹的交易服务。此类访问和使用始终受以下条款的约束:(1)使用条款;(2)完整免责声明;(3)风险警告;(4)参与规则;(5)(如相关)在盛宝银行集团成员网站上使用超链接访问盛宝资讯及研究的条款,以及盛宝资讯及研究和/或其内容的通知。因此,所提供的内容仅以资讯为限。特别是,盛宝银行集团实体无意提供任何建议,或让他人依赖或向他人授权其资讯;这些资讯既不构成业务招揽,或提供奖励促使他人认购、销售或购入任何金融工具。您所进行的所有交易或投资必须是依据您的自发性及自主性作出的决定。为此,对于因依赖盛宝资讯及研究提供的资讯,或因使用盛宝资讯及研究而作出的任何投资决定所蒙受的任何损失,盛宝银行集团实体概不承担责任。所提交的订单和生效的交易在盛宝银行集团实体开立的账户中提交或生效。该盛宝银行集团实体在客户所在的司法管辖区经营,且客户在该实体开立及保留其交易账户。盛宝资讯及研究不包含(且不应被解读为)金融、投资、税务或交易的意见,由盛宝银行集团提供、建议或授权任何类型的建议,不应被解读为对我们交易价格的记录,或提供、鼓励或招揽客户认购、销售或购买任何金融工具的记录。就任何内容被解读为投资研究而言,您必须注意和接受,这些内容并非专为推动投资研究独立化的法律要求而准备,并且在相关法律下不会被视为营销传播。

请阅读我们的免责声明:
关于非独立投资研究的通知 (https://cn.saxobank.com/legal/niird/notification)
完整免责声明 (https://cn.saxobank.com/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
完整免责声明 (https://cn.saxobank.com/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

请选择地区

中国大陆
中国大陆

交易责任
所有交易都存在风险。阅读更多。为了帮助您了解所涉及的风险,我们整理了一系列关键信息文件 (KID),重点介绍了与每种产品有关的风险和回报。阅读更多

本网站可在全球各地访问,但是本网站的信息与盛宝银行A/S有关,并非特定于盛宝集团的任何实体。所有客户将直接与盛宝银行接洽,并且所有客户协议将与盛宝银行A/S签订,因此受丹麦法律管辖。

Apple 和 Apple 徽标是 Apple Inc. 在美国和其他国家和地区注册的商标。App Store 是 Apple Inc. 的服务标志。Google Play 和 Google Play 是 Google LLC 的商标。

沪ICP备13028953号-1