China China China

China Update: July manufacturing PMI slid back into contraction

Macro 阅读时间7分钟
Redmond Wong

Market Strategist, Greater China

摘要:  China’s official NBS manufacturing PMI released on Sunday July 31 surprised to the downside and declined to 49.0, back to the contractionary territory (vs consensus: 50.3; June: 50.2). The manufacturing output sub-index and manufacturing new order sub-index were both in contraction, coming at 49.8 and 48.5 respectively. Exports new orders sub-index fell 2.1 points to 47.4.


Board-based decline of manufacturing activities in July

China’s official NBS manufacturing PMI expectedly dropped to 49.0, much weaker than the consensus expectation of 50.3 and 1.2 point lower from June.  It is important to note that all the 13 major sub-indices of the manufacturing PMI fell in July from June and 10 of the 13 below the 50-threshold, indicating contraction. After bouncing in June as many cities reopened from Covid-related lockdown, manufacturing activities across the board declined.  Most notably, from June to July, manufacturing output sub-index fell from 52.8 to 49.8, new orders sub-index from 50.4 to 48.5, new export orders sub-index from 49.5 to 47.4, imports sub-index from 49.2 to 46.9, employment sub-index from 48.7 to 48.6, purchase quantity sub-index from 51.1 to 48.9 and open orders sub-index from 44.2 to 42.6.

The weakness was among enterprises from small to large sizes

The weakness spread across large, medium-size and small enterprises, all having fallen sequentially and coming at 49.8, 48.5 and 47.9 respectively.  The drop among medium-sized enterprises was particularly drastic, falling 2.8 points from 51.3 in June to 48.5 in July. 

Inflation pressures showed sign of abating

Inflation of factory gate prices continued to abate as the producer price sub-index of the manufacturing PMI survey fell from 46.3 in June to 40.1 in July, the third consecutive month in the contractionary territory.  The input price sub-index plunged 11.6 point from 52.0 in June to 40.4 in July. 

Services activities moderated but firmly in the expansionary territory

Non-manufacturing PMI came at 53.8 largely in-line with expectations for July (vs consensus: 53.9; June: 54.7).  The services sub-index of the non-manufacturing PMI moderated slightly to 52.8 in July, from 54.3 in June but it stood in the expansionary territory. Air transportation, catering, lodging, environment protection and public facility management components came at above 60, indicating relatively strong expansion in support to the services sector.

Construction activities accelerated as infrastructure projects being rolled out

The construction sub-index of the non-manufacturing PMI surges 2.6 point to 59.2, indicating strong expansion.  The strong performance was largely due to the rolling-out of infrastructure construction projects. 

 

Figure 1: China manufacturing PMI & key sub-indices; Sources: Bloomberg, Saxo
Figure 2: China manufacturing PMI: large, medium & small-size enterprises; Sources: Bloomberg, Saxo
Figure 3: China manufacturing PMI input and producer prices; Sources: Bloomberg, Saxo
Figure 4: China non-manufacturing PMI; Sources: Bloomberg, Saxo

免责声明

盛宝银行集团下每个成员个体均提供纯粹的交易服务和分析,让投资者查看和/或使用网站上的内容。此内容并非为了改变或扩展纯粹的交易服务。此类访问和使用始终受以下条款的约束:(1)使用条款;(2)完整免责声明;(3)风险警告;(4)参与规则;(5)(如相关)在盛宝银行集团成员网站上使用超链接访问盛宝资讯及研究的条款,以及盛宝资讯及研究和/或其内容的通知。因此,所提供的内容仅以资讯为限。特别是,盛宝银行集团实体无意提供任何建议,或让他人依赖或向他人授权其资讯;这些资讯既不构成业务招揽,或提供奖励促使他人认购、销售或购入任何金融工具。您所进行的所有交易或投资必须是依据您的自发性及自主性作出的决定。为此,对于因依赖盛宝资讯及研究提供的资讯,或因使用盛宝资讯及研究而作出的任何投资决定所蒙受的任何损失,盛宝银行集团实体概不承担责任。所提交的订单和生效的交易在盛宝银行集团实体开立的账户中提交或生效。该盛宝银行集团实体在客户所在的司法管辖区经营,且客户在该实体开立及保留其交易账户。盛宝资讯及研究不包含(且不应被解读为)金融、投资、税务或交易的意见,由盛宝银行集团提供、建议或授权任何类型的建议,不应被解读为对我们交易价格的记录,或提供、鼓励或招揽客户认购、销售或购买任何金融工具的记录。就任何内容被解读为投资研究而言,您必须注意和接受,这些内容并非专为推动投资研究独立化的法律要求而准备,并且在相关法律下不会被视为营销传播。

请阅读我们的免责声明:
关于非独立投资研究的通知 (https://cn.saxobank.com/legal/niird/notification)
完整免责声明 (https://cn.saxobank.com/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
完整免责声明 (https://cn.saxobank.com/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

请选择地区

中文
中文

交易责任
所有交易都存在风险。阅读更多。为了帮助您了解所涉及的风险,我们整理了一系列关键信息文件 (KID),重点介绍了与每种产品有关的风险和回报。阅读更多

本网站可在全球各地访问,但是本网站的信息与盛宝银行A/S有关,并非特定于盛宝集团的任何实体。所有客户将直接与盛宝银行接洽,并且所有客户协议将与盛宝银行A/S签订,因此受丹麦法律管辖。

Apple 和 Apple 徽标是 Apple Inc. 在美国和其他国家和地区注册的商标。App Store 是 Apple Inc. 的服务标志。Google Play 和 Google Play 是 Google LLC 的商标。

沪ICP备13028953号-1